“Global marine fuel consumption is estimated to be ~330 million​metric tons (87 billion gallons) annually”.
Read more here

X

“60,000 deaths—were due to air pollution from the 70,000 international ships that ply the world’s oceans. That equates to about 160 billion dollars of health damages annually”. Read more here

Note:
Some studies put the attributable death toll & economic impact as much, much higher;
250k annually post emission reductions
400k annually

X

$193.45 billion in explicit subsidies for oil based fossil fuels (Gasoline, Diesel, LPG, Kerosene, Petroleum) during 2020​. Read here.​​

At minimum, approximately $81 billion per year is spent by the U.S. military protecting global oil supplies Read here.‍​​

32.21 billion barrels of oil produced in 2020​(81 billion + 193.4 Read here.​​

(81 billion + 193.45 billion)/32.21 billion = ~$8.52 explicit subsidy + US military spending subsidy per barrel of oil​​. 1 tonne = 7.44 barrels​​. 7.44 * $8.52 = $63 explicit subsidy + US military spending subsidy per tonne of oil​​. 330 million tonnes of oil * $63 subsidy = $20.919 billion total subsidy for oil consumed by shipping industry. ​​

Note: This figure does not include spending by other governments on protecting foreign oil assets, and does not account for the further billions of implicit subsidies received by fossil fuels, see here. ​

X

Recent studies puts the socio economic cost of 1 tonne of carbon emissions (or their GHG GWP equivalent) at $185​.
Read here.

X

Fourth IMO GHG Study 2020, bottom up emissions estimates for 2018​. Read Here. ​​

​​Note:​This is not the complete list of pollutants produced by shipping, and also represents only the “tank to wake” emissions – some studies have noted that the “well to tank” emissions could represent a further 10% increase in emissions.

X

The Cost of NOT Going Green

Taxpayers finance shipping through direct subsidies and by covering the cost of pollution, such as harm to human health and the known impacts of climate change. ​

Just these costs alone amount to over $400 billion every year - the years to come will show us the full scale of the economic damage from climate change.

While we've used a figure of 60,000 deaths per year from shipping pollution, some studies have estimated as high as 400,000, while millions more are afflicted with serious health conditions.

Annual Total
20 year CO2e Warming
Potential*
Hidden & Unpaid Economic Cost
330 000 000 *
330 000 000 1.
-
$21 BILLION *
$21 BILLION 3.
60 000 *
60 000 2.
-
$160 BILLION *
$160 BILLION 2.
1 056 000 000 *
1 056 000 000 5.
1 056 000 000 *
$195 BILLION *  
$195 BILLION 6.
22 754 000
716 751 000
$133 BILLION
100 389
321 244 800
$59 BILLION
59 056
15 827 008
$2.9 BILLION
11 480 000
unknown
unknown
3 410 000
unknown
unknown
976 000
unknown
unknown
954 000
unknown
unknown
$414 BILLION
*Click for more information
*Read More
  • “Global marine fuel consumption is estimated to be ~330 million​metric tons (87 billion gallons) annually”.
    Read more here

  • “60,000 deaths—were due to air pollution from the 70,000 international ships that ply the world’s oceans. That equates to about 160 billion dollars of health damages annually”. Read more here

    ​Some studies put the attributable death toll & economic impact as much, much higher (~250k annually post emission reductions)​. Read more here

  • $193.45 billion in explicit subsidies for oil based fossil fuels (Gasoline, Diesel, LPG, Kerosene, Petroleum) during 2020​. Read here.​​

    At minimum, approximately $81 billion per year is spent by the U.S. military protecting global oil supplies Read here.‍​​

    32.21 billion barrels of oil produced in 2020​(81 billion + 193.4 Read here.​​

    (81 billion + 193.45 billion)/32.21 billion = ~$8.52 explicit subsidy + US military spending subsidy per barrel of oil​​. 1 tonne = 7.44 barrels​​. 7.44 * $8.52 = $63 explicit subsidy + US military spending subsidy per tonne of oil​​. 330 million tonnes of oil * $63 subsidy = $20.919 billion total subsidy for oil consumed by shipping industry. ​​

    Note: This figure does not include spending by other governments on protecting foreign oil assets, and does not account for the further billions of implicit subsidies received by fossil fuels, see here. ​

  • Recent studies puts the socio economic cost of 1 tonne of carbon emissions (or their GHG GWP equivalent) at $185​. Read here.

  • Fourth IMO GHG Study 2020, bottom up emissions estimates for 2018​. Read Here. ​​

    ​​Note:​This is not the complete list of pollutants produced by shipping, and also represents only the “tank to wake” emissions – some studies have noted that the “well to tank” emissions could represent a further 10% increase in emissions.

  • These figures represent the global warming potential of the various emissions over a 20-year period. This is seen as an important metric, since certain emissions can be far more damaging over the short term compared to carbon emissions only. Emission figures are multiplied by the below factors to provide a carbon emission equivalent. ​​

    CH4 20 YR GWP = 87 ​Read Here. IPCC AR5 Table 8.7, with climate-carbon feedbacks, +1 to GWP20 for fossil methane, per footnote in Table 8.7

    BLACK CARBON 20 YR GWP = 3200​. Read Here

    N2O 20 YR GWP = 268. IPCC AR5 Table 8.7, with climate-carbon feedbacks. Read Here.

    NOx 20 YR GWP = 30-33. Read Here.

    Many emissions are not well understood (see emissions referenced unknown under hidden & economic cost) but likely still have a dramatic impact to climate change and thus a substantial economic burden. The Sulpher Oxides family in particular is thought to have a large impact on the climate, and is also one of the highest emissions from shipping relative to other industries, but since we cannot accurately represent these emissions, they have been emitted from the cost total.

OIL

While the marine industry runs on various oil (petroleum) based products, HFO or Heavy Fuel Oil is the most common. HFO is the thick, toxic sludge left behind when refining oil into products such as gasoline.

​​Being an unwanted by-product that’s difficult to dispose of, it's inexpensive. This has allowed shipping not to concern itself with fuel efficiency. While all petroleum-based fuels cause significant emissions, HFO is by far the worst offender..

What's the size of the problem?

Every single year the marine industry burns enough oil to flood the entire Island of Manhattan to 7m in depth, that's enough to entirely cover a two-story house.

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“Global marine fuel consumption is estimated to be ~330 million metric tons (87 billion gallons) annually"

- Surface area of Manhattan Island is 5.91x10^7 m^2
- 330 million metric tons of oil = ~389 million cu m
- 5.91x10^7 / 389x10^6 = 6.59 m
That means a ~7m deep layer of oil across the whole island

Oil Subsidies

The IMF recently calculated global implicit and explicit subsidies on fossil fuel production to be $5.9 trillion. Looking just at oil based products, this would imply an approximate subsidy of $1100/tonne. This puts the subsidy for Shipping's oil usage at $376 Billion, every year.

Environmental Hazard

HFO is so toxic, it is banned as a fuel source for ships travelling in the Antarctic, to prevent a spillage devastating the protected environment. Sadly it is still used by 60% of the approximately 60,000 "large" vessels in the world - with that percentage likely to increase as fuel prices climb.

Deaths

Comprehensive studies have been performed that try to quantify the number of deaths caused by shipping pollution, with figures ranging from 60 000 per year to 400 000.

Economic impact due to shipping related death and illnesses has been widely speculated, with estimates ranging from $160 billion globally to $330 billion just in the USA.

Who is at Risk?

Those living near ports and high marine traffic routes are most at risk. Having high population density in general, it's no surprise to see 6 of the worst affected countries located in the European continent.

Read More

Not age adjusted; excludes countries with fewer than 10 total deaths attributable to shipping
Source: ICCT

Shipping Emissions vs. Automotive

The high illness and death toll is caused by emissions from shipping being far higher in cancer, pulmonary and cardiovascular disease-causing chemicals than road transport. As one example, it has been shown that the 16 largest cargo vessels emit as much toxic sulphur (in the form SOx) as 800 million cars.

Particulate Hazard

The mix of emissions include several toxic irritants as well as various particulate matters. Together these have a substantial affect on lung health, and beyond premature death can lead to various illnesses - as another example, shipping has been directly linked with causing up to 6.4 million cases of childhood asthma globally every year.

Shipping emits over 1 billion tonnes of CO2 annually, accounting for 3% of emissions worldwide. The unpaid socio-economic costs of CO2 emissions are estimated at $185/tonne –this is a cost of $195 billion to the world economy every year –more than the GDP of most countries

6TH HIGHEST CO2 EMITTER

If Shipping was a country, it would be the 6th highest emitter of CO2 in the world, ahead of Germany, Mexico and the United Kingdom

NOT ALL EMISSIONS ARE ACCOUNTED FOR

The over 1 billion tons of emissions does not account for the CO2 used in sourcing, refining and transporting the oil, which could add a further 11% (another 110 000 000+ tons) according to detailed studies.

IMO FAILING THE PARIS ACCORD

If shipping emissions continue to grow as projected (and allowed by IMO targets), the maritime industry will single handidly undermine the objectives of the Paris Climate Agreement.

Shipping emits almost 23 million tonnes of NOx annually, nearly matching the entire output of the 38 countries in the OECD (which includes the USA, Germany, France and the UK). Shipping is estimated to be responsible for between 18 and 30% of NOx emissions globally.

During UV exposure it interacts with volatile organic compounds and forms the serious pollutant of ground level (tropospheric) O3 also known as SMOG.

TOXIC TO HUMANS

Long-term exposure to high levels of nitrogen dioxide can cause chronic lung disease, worsen asthma and heart disease and is tied to elevated risks of premature death. Only one or two breaths of a very high concentration can cause severe toxicity.

TOXIC TO THE ENVIRONMENT

In the presence of rain, nitrogen oxides form nitric acid, creating acid rain – killing trees and plant life, and destroying marine ecosystems.  High levels of nitrogen dioxide are also responsible for damaging plant growth/reducing crop yields.

Sources


- EPA

30 TIMES WORSE THAN CO2

While only 2% of total shipping emissions, NOx is estimated to have a Global Warming Potential of over 30 times greater than CO2. This would make the NOX emissions from shipping almost as disastrous for climate change as its CO2 emissions.

Shipping emits about 12 million tonnes of SOx annually, accounting for a full 8% of global emissions.

SOx can react with other compounds in the atmosphere to form small particles. These particles contribute to particulate matter (PM) pollution.

SCRUBBERS

Scrubber systems use seawater spray to remove some of the contaminants from the engine’s exhaust, dumping the acidic wash into the ocean. It’s estimated by the International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT) that 10 billion tonnes of scrubber washwater is discharged into the oceans annually – causing acidification and destruction to the marine environment.

HSFO

High oil prices are causing shipping operators to ditch Very Low Sulfur Fuel Oils in favour of cheaper High Sulfur Fuel Oil, which can have a sulfur content of up to 3.5%, in combination with scrubbers, which will lead to an increase in ocean acidification and atmospheric SOx emissions.

HEALTH & ENVIRONMENT

Just like NOX, SOx is extremely hazardous to the environment and human health. In humans long term exposure can cause respiratory diseases, high concentrations can cause death in a single exposure. It is also a suspected mutagen. For the environment it causes acid rain and acidification of the oceans.

Sources

- EPA

Shipping emits about 100 000 tonnes of black carbon annually, however with a global warming potential estimated to be up to 3200 times worse than CO2, this would equate to dumping 300 MILLION tonnes of CO2 into the atmosphere, or roughly the equivalent to the emissions of the United Kingdom.

PUBLIC HEALTH IMPACTS

Particulate matter is the most harmful to public health of all air pollutants. Particulate matters such as Black Carbon contains very fine carcinogens that can find their way deep into lungs and the bloodstream, and cause cardiovascular and respiratory disease, as well as premature death. A study by EHP concluded that a 23-34% reduction in Particulate Matter 2.5 from control measures focused almost entirely on Black Carbon could prevent anywhere from 640,000 to 4,900,000 premature deaths annually by 2030.

CLIMATE IMPACTS

Black Carbon is second only to CO2 for overall climate impact, despite the smaller quantities produced. In the atmosphere black carbon absorbs and radiates solar energy. When it falls to earth it darkens snow and ice, reducing their albedo (reflecting power) at the same time as hastening their melting.

SHORT LIVED

Black carbon is an attractive climate-change mitigation target because it is relatively short-lived in the atmosphere compared with carbon dioxide. This means emission restrictions would lead to rapid benefits.

Methane has accounted for roughly 30 per cent of global warming since pre-industrial times and is proliferating faster than at any other time since record keeping began in the 1980s.

Methane is estimated to have 80 times the warming power of CO2, meaning the 150 000 tonnes emitted by shipping corresponds to releasing 13 million tonnes of CO2.

SNIFFING METHANE FROM SPACE

Methane emissions are considered such a risk, that several initiatives have launched satellites into space to better understand emissions sources and how we can control them. While agriculture is currently the biggest offender for methane emissions, the approximately 45 mega tonnes produced by the oil industry are seen as an easier target to fix with regulation and controls.

SMOG

Methane is also the primary contributor to the formation of ground-level (tropospheric) ozone (O3) or smog, by mixing with NOx and Volatile Organic Compounds (VOCs - also heavily emitted by shipping). Ground level O3 is a hazardous air pollutant and greenhouse gas, exposure to which causes 1 million premature deaths every year.

FUGITIVE EMISSIONS AND SLIP FROM LNG

LNG is currently being explored as another alternative to HFO for shipping – however “fugitive” methane emissions and methane “slip”- where methane escapes storage reservoirs unintentionally or passes through the engine un-combusted - are a big risk, and are currently under the scrutiny of several studies.

Shipping emits almost 60 000 tonnes of Nitrous Oxide annually; however, it is estimated that the climate impact of N2O is almost 300 times more severe than Carbon Dioxide, therefore equating to 15 million tonnes of CO2.

N2O is seen as the biggest threat to climate change after CO2, Black Carbon and Methane. When released into the atmosphere, it remains trapped for over 100 years.

OZONE DEPLETING

N2O is currently the single most ozone-depleting emission and is expected to remain so throughout the 21st century, and could well reverse the good work of the Montreal Protocol that has helped restore the ozone layer's protective effects.

OUTPACING CLIMATE MODELS

Nitrous oxide emissions from human activities have increased 30 percent over the past four decades, surpassing the highest emission levels scientists have projected in climate models. Most of this increase has come from agriculture or natural sources, however given its severity, the approximate 0.5% that can be attributed to shipping is still significant.

AMMONIA TO REPLACE HEAVY FUEL OILS

With the pending climate crisis, other fuel sources are being considered. One of these is Ammonia, which amongst a litany of issues, produces large amounts of N2O during combustion, and would require scrubber style systems to have it removed from the exhaust gas – introducing large amounts of N2O into the marine environment.

While our understanding of the damage caused by shipping pollution continues to grow, the topics discussed here remain the tip of the iceberg.

Climate change and shipping's contribution thereto might be the priority, but there are many more issues with modern shipping. Human health issues briefly discussed, along with disruption and destruction to the marine environment from noisy ICE ships dumping pollutant heavy oil tank and scrubber washwater directly into the ocean, continue to be studied.